Nothing in the King’s Speech or the new government’s housing plans has had any material impact on the outlook for the market in the next 12 to 18 months, says Zoopla.
The portal adds: “In the longer term, economic growth, rising household incomes and increased home building will benefit homebuyers and renters. The timing of the first base rate cut is important. It will deliver a boost to consumer confidence and market activity rather than leading to any major reduction in mortgage rates for new home buyers.”
Zoopla expects UK house prices to increase slowly but steadily over the second half of 2024, on average increasing towards around 2% by the end of the year.
The improved outlook for the housing market is bolstered by an increased number of homes for sale - higher than at any point in the previous six years. This increased level of choice for buyers is supporting more sales going through.
More sellers naturally means more buyers who appear motivated by a range of reasons. In particular Zoopla is seeing that many would-be movers are upsizers - those looking for a larger home, usually to accommodate a growing family. The data shows that more buyers are having to look further afield to get the home and features they are seeking. This is primarily down to affordability and value for money considerations.
The portal adds that while growth over the last 12 months has been largely static (increasing by just 0.1%) the regional view shows more of a mixed picture, and somewhat of a north-south divide as affordability continues to be more of a constraint in southern England.
For example, while Belfast has seen a 4.3% increase (and Northern Ireland more widely a 3.9% increase) and Scotland has seen an overall increase of 1.4%, South East England saw a fall of -1%, South West England a drop of -0.7% and in the East of England, prices are down -1.2%.
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, says: “The housing market is starting to hot up after a stone cold 2023. There are clear signs of growing confidence amongst buyers and sellers with many more homes for sale and buyers paying an increased proportion of the asking price. We expect to see more sales but house price inflation will be kept in check by more supply and affordability pressures keeping a lid on buying power, especially across southern England.
“While we don’t expect to see any impact from the new government, or the King’s Speech specifically, in the next 12 to 18 months, it is possible we will in the longer term. The housing market is essentially an extension of the UK economy. Government policies focused on economic growth that feeds into income growth will help support both home buyers and renters. The Bank of England will have more impact on the market in the short term and much depends on the timing of the first base rate cut.”
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